Post Q2/FullTilt Closure H2 eGaming Dataset Now Available
Posted on 08/07/2011 in General News
After analysing the first six months sector data (including all of the Q1 results) and guidance, updating our regulatory database and incorporating the constant sector news flow H2 have published our latest eGaming sector dataset.
Now utilising 30 June 2011 constant exchange rates it is expected that total global gross win generated by interactive gambling will reach €22.87bn this year which is 3.9% ahead of the 2010 level but €1.29bn less than we forecast at the beginning of the year before the impact events such as the Japanese earthquake, delays in the opening of regulated markets, Black Friday and the closure FullTilt are taken into account.
In poker it is expected that 2011 will see 37% of the value of the market take place within regulated markets as opposed to 18% last year and this is expected to grow to 45% in 2012. Across the whole interactive real money gambling sector as a whole the corresponding figures are 37% for 2011 and 33% for 2010 respectively.
By 30 June H2’s Internet Poker Volume Index (H2VI) was at 3,167, 13.6% behind of where it was at the end of April. This was obviously the low point of the month with being the first full day of the Tilt closure. June’s activity peaked on Tuesday 7 June at 3,686. The overall loss of the index reached 31.8% during Q2 taking activity to a level that has not been seen for three years.
The headline YoY increase in the value of the interactive gambling market of 3.8% is the lowest increase the sector has seen since H2 commenced tracking it in 1998. The good news for the majority of the commercial eGaming sector is that underlying growth (after the above headwinds outlined above and absence of a World Cup football) remains strong at 12.0% (2010 9.2%).
Global eGaming Market Gross Win 2004 to 2015e (€bn)
Source: H2 Gambling Capital, July 2011
At this point in time H2’s forecasts still reflect the start of some casino activity in Italy in the middle part of this year, with a phased ramp up of activity to follow along with cash poker games. Regulated activity in Greece, Belgium and Spain is expected to commence at some point in 2012. Events in Germany have had little impact on H2’s forecasts as we assume little activity will transfer onshore (with the exception of Schleswig Holstein) under the proposed scheme.
Europe is expected to continue to grow its share of the global eGaming market in 2011 with 47.2% up from 31.5% in 2006 (the majority of the latter being pre the signing into law of UIGEA). On the other hand North America has seen its share of interactive gambling fall from 30.5% in 2006 to an expected 16.7% in the current year. Despite the earthquake in Japan Asia/the Middle East is expected to account for 27.7% of the market this year though this is 4.5% lower than the region’s share of the market five years ago.
H2 are more bullish than we were at the beginning of the year regarding the prospects for some permissive eGaming regulation in the US going forward. There appears to be some buy in across party lines to at least consider the issue more closely. However, H2 remain of the view that it will be at least three to five years before any significant regulated activity will be seen on the ground in the US and so at this time no regulated Internet gaming is included in our core forecasts which extend to 2015.
Global Internet Poker Gross Win 2006 to 2015E (€bn)
Source: H2 Gambling Capital, July 2011
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